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2016 NFL Survivor Pool Picks

July 27, 2016 by hpadmin

NFL training camps kick off this week, so it’s a good time to start looking at the regular season schedule and planning out your picks to win your Survivor Pool in 2016.  Doing so will give you a leg up on many of your competitors, many of whom don’t think beyond the next week, often leaving themselves in tough situations with limited options, as a result. I’ve used this exercise to help me win multiple Survivor Pools over the past 5 seasons.  I don’t always stick with my original picks, but it’s good to have a plan, not just to survive the first few weeks, but to at least get to a point where you can cash in via a split or by taking the whole pot.

We have managed to find a solid line up of picks for the entire season, without a single road game or an opposing team coming off a bye, and with the closest spread being 5 points.  Weeks 8 and 12 appear to be the toughest at first glance, so we are picking those, then working outwards from there.  We are purposely leaving out Seattle and Green Bay, so you can use them as a replacement team in any of a number of weeks.  Both teams have 5 weeks as favourites of 7 or more points, with another 2 or 3 where they are by at least 5.

Note: All spreads are the initial offerings from sports books, and are subject to change. 

The Survivor Pool Picks

Week 1 – Philadelphia (-7.5) vs Cleveland – While we generally avoid new coaching staffs, it’s tough not to pick against Cleveland early on as well.  It’s the only game all season Philly is a heavy favourite.  If you don’t use them here, you likely won’t use them.

Week 2 – Arizona (-9) vs Tampa Bay – Arizona has several pickable games on the schedule, but we like them in this Week 2 match up with Tampa heading West for their 2nd straight road game to start the season.

Week 3 – Indianapolis (-5.5) vs San Diego – Week 3 is probably the best week on the schedule for large spreads.  Four teams are favoured by at least a touchdown, and another 3 are at least 5 points.  I went down the board a bit for this one, in hopes that a large portion of teams get knocked out following a huge favourite.

Week 4 – Washington (-7.5) vs Cleveland – Another NFC East team with Cleveland at home being their only game worth picking.

Week 5 – Carolina (-10) vs Tampa Bay – After Week 1, Carolina is going to be a popular team in the early going.  I wouldn’t be surprised if close to 75% of entries have used them by this game.

Week 6 – Buffalo (-7) vs San Francisco – This may be a good week to drop Seattle in as well, to save Buffalo for late season home games against the Browns and Fins.

Week 7 – Cincinnati (-11.5) vs Cleveland – Another division game, and Hue knows the Bengals, but there is too much talent in Cinci.

Week 8 – Denver (-7) vs San Diego – The only other decent options in Week 8 are road games.  Denver is as close to a must start as there is at this point.

Week 9 – Minnesota (-6.5) vs Detroit – Detroit outdoors is generally not a good thing.   Throw in some potentially poor November weather and it gets worse.

Week 10 – Baltimore (-8.5) vs Cleveland – The Browns may be playing for the #1 pick by this point.

Week 11 – Kansas City (-7) vs Tampa Bay – I am surprised how many times odds makers list KC as 7+ point favourites.  Alex Smith as your QB isn’t usually conducive to a number of big wins.

Week 12 – Miami (-5) vs San Francisco – This is going to be the toughest week to pick of the season (if you had to pick now).  Five points is the largest spread, and looking long term, this is probably the game I have the most confidence in right now.  San Fran heading east after 5 straight weeks where they only go as far as Arizona.

Week 13 – Pittsburgh (-7.5) vs NY Giants – This could be where you use Green Bay (home to Houston) as well.  Will greatly depend on how the 4 teams involved are playing at the time.

Week 14 – New England (-9) vs Baltimore – Some of the early season New England spreads will obviously change with Jimmy Garappollo under center, so you are better of to leave them for one of their later match ups.

Week 15 – Atlanta (-5) vs San Francisco or Dallas (-6) vs Tampa Bay – Late in the year, it’s good to have options.  Obviously, things can and will change throughout the season, so there may be other games worth picking.

Week 16 – Dallas (-5) vs Detroit or Los Angeles (-5.5) vs San Francisco – It could be a real dog-fight between Cleveland and San Fran for the most picks against this season.

Week 17 – TBD – Most survivor pools will be long over by Week 17, but if yours gets to that point, you’ll have to take a look at what you have available as well as who still has something to play for and pick accordingly.

One thing I still want to do before the season, is to look at the full impact that Thursday games have on teams on and after the short weeks, and incorporate that into my own selections.

There you have it.  Hopefully this helps some of you in planning your 2016 Survivor Pool picks.

Filed Under: Pick Analysis Tagged With: Football Pool, NFL, Office Pool, Picks, Strategy, Survivor

Office Pool Payout

August 24, 2015 by hpadmin

The most important aspect of running a successful pool is setting your entry fee and payout structure, and ensuring everyone’s money is accounted for and in good hands.  If people don’t trust you, they aren’t going to hand over their money, it doesn’t matter how great your set up is, so be transparent in everything you do.  Setting your entry fees and your payouts is easy and here is some information to guide you:

Managing Office Pool Money

In our opinion the best thing to do if you’re going to be handling money for an office pool is set up a separate account and require 2 signatures, especially if your prize pool is going to be a significant amount of money.  Money generally only comes out once a year, so requiring 2 people to withdraw money isn’t a big deal to ensure that piece of mind for your poolies.   This will probably be overkill for a number of pools, but we’d still suggest keeping a separate account in your personal banking to deal with it if it’s any amount over $500.  Anything under that and just keep solid records so you know what you have that belongs to your pools (or throw it in some sort of safe).  There are also services online now that will handle payments for fantasy leagues and office pools (e.g. LeagueSafe)

Office Pool Entry Fees

The biggest key to setting your entry fee is knowing what type of person is going to be in your pool.  If it’s reasonably low, you’re probably looking for more casual fans and a potentially larger pool, while if it’s at the higher end, you’re most likely running a smaller pool of more serious participants.  Pretty much any pool we run is a minimum of $10, which is less than a meal at most restaurants.  For any office pool that lasts an entire season for everyone involved, we lean towards $20-$25 as that usually works out to about a dollar per week.  For football pools (pick’em) where there is also a weekly prize, we generally go with $2 to $5 per week, with an extra $20 to $50 each for the overall prize.  That works out to about $55 for the season on the low end, and closer to $135 at the high end.  For fantasy leagues, we like something between $25 and $100 per person, which usually keeps people from just letting their team slide after a few early season losses.  Note that these are guidelines for a more casual entrant.  There will obviously be some pools that play for more significant amounts of money.

Office Pool Payout

There are basically two schools of thought when it comes to paying out any fantasy league or office pool.  First, you have the “winner take all” approach, where there is a sole winner, who wins the entire prize pot.  The second spreads out the prize pool over a number of positions and/or ‘bonus’ prizes with a gradual decline in value for each position.  Different methods work for different types/sizes of pools:

Fantasy Leagues:

As these are usually smaller in size with 8-16 participants, the “winner take all” approach works well here.  Some leagues will distinguish between regular season and playoff champions and have a prize for each.

Eliminator/Survivor Pools

Obviously these types of office pools are geared specifically towards “winner take all”, but there are usually opportunities for splitting once you get down to the end if the pool is large enough.  When it comes to splits, we always like to leave a significant amount still on the table to play for, and any split must be agreed to by all remaining participants prior to being approved by the pool manager.

Season Long Pick’em/Box/Player Pools

These types of pools tend to be the ones where multiple payout spots work best, especially if your pool is more than just a few participants.  Anything over 10-15, and you should start adding payout positions.  Our rule of thumb is roughly one payout spot for every 10 to 15 entries, so a pool with 50 entries would pay out 4 or 5 positions.  Unless your pool is very large (well over 100 entries), we suggest making the first prize as close to 50% of the prize pool as possible, and lean towards going further above 50% the smaller the pool.

Bonus Prizes

In some season long pools, it sometimes makes sense to have ‘bonus’ prizes, that aren’t determined by overall score at the end of the season.  The most common is to reward a first half or second half winner.  A second half prize can be a good way to keep people interested, even if they have a slow start in the overall standings.  Another interesting twist is to payout the person finishing last with their money back, with the caveat that they have to have made all of their picks in order to ‘win’ the prize.  We generally suggest avoiding bonus prizes unless the pool has a significant number of entries (at least 50).

There is no right or wrong way to set up your payout, just be sure to lay it out clearly for participants prior to the pool starting to avoid any complications during the season.   When setting your payout, don’t forget to account for any fees you have to pay out to manage the pool, such as a site fee, or banking fees so you don’t end up out of pocket.

Filed Under: Manage a Pool Tagged With: Manager, Money, Office Pool

Grow Your Office Pool

August 19, 2015 by hpadmin

Once you have started an office pool and you have the first season (or several seasons) as a pool manager under your belt and things have gone smoothly, it’s time to start seriously thinking about growing your pool.  With more entries comes better competition, and what most people are interested in – bigger payouts.  This also potentially leads to more time commitment and more responsibility for you.  Thankfully with HostedPools, that’s generally not the case.

Here are a few of the key things to consider when growing your office pool:

1. Know What You Can Handle

You already have at least a season managing an office pool under your belt, so you should have a solid idea of the time commitment required at different parts of the season.  That should give you a reasonable idea of how much more time and effort you can afford to devote to making your league operate well with an increase in entries.  Thankfully, HostedPools is here to help you by handle updating stats for you, so most of the availability is required in the set up stages, sending invites and gathering entries and taking care of financials.

2. Set Realistic Goals

Once you’ve decided how many more teams you can reasonable handle, be sure to set a goal for you to strive towards.  Just saying you want to grow your league isn’t enough.  Set a specific number of entries to work towards that you think is attainable.  You will be more focused in getting there if you have a realistic number in mind.

3. Existing Members

The key to growing an office pool, is keeping your existing entrants satisfied.  It’s much easier to keep a ‘customer’ than it is to get a new one.  If your existing participants enjoy your pool, they are also more likely to spread the word to their friends, and word of mouth is easily one of the best forms of ‘marketing’ your pool.  They’re also apt to create multiple teams on their own to increase their chances as your pool gets larger.  This is most often the case in survival/elimination type pools, so people can hedge their bets to take a shot at a big prize.

4. Selling Your Pool

What’s the best part about your league?  Is it the high payout for first place, the multitude of payout spots, the competition or the daily interaction and smack talk with the other entrants?  Is your league ultra-competitive or more casual?  Knowing what potential poolies are looking for makes it a lot easier for you to ‘sell’ participating in your pool to them.  As we mentioned in our start an office pool post, make the invitations as personable as possible.  Mass messages don’t tend to work nearly as well.

5. Make It Easy

Create an email, PDF or a Google Doc of step by step instructions for how to join your pool, for both yourself and your existing entrants to use as a reference when recruiting new entrants.  Be sure to be clear and concise, so your potential new entrants understand what to do.  It’s always helpful when doing something new to have an easy to follow reference if you get stuck or confused by something.  We have a one step link in our invites to make it easier to acquire new entrants.

6. Social Networking

Why not set up a fan page or group on Facebook so people can follow your pool, or post on Twitter using your pool name as a hashtag?  It’s a good way to spread the word about your pool, and very easy for your participants to invite their friends to follow along.  Be sure everyone is cool with their name being posted as a courtesy.

 

Do you have any other great tips for growing an office pool?  (What has worked for you?  What hasn’t?)  Share them in the comments!

Filed Under: Manage a Pool Tagged With: Manager, Office Pool

Pick 5 Hockey Pool on Hosted Pools

The Pick 5 Hockey Pool is our newest offering at HostedPools.  It’s a variation on a basic Pick’em Hockey Pool, where you only select 5 games each weekend instead of the full slate of games on the schedule.  On the football side, it’s become quite a popular set up, as there is a huge one run by one of the Vegas Hotels for serious money, dubbed the SuperContest.  We have had a number of requests to add the format for hockey, and we’ve heard the suggestions and added it.

Pick 5 Hockey Pool Basics

For each weekend of the NHL regular season, you pick the winners of 5 different games for the weekend.  Each pick you make is on the ‘puck line’ or spread as it’s more commonly known on the football side, so if you take the favourite, they have to win, and cover the spread for you to earn a point.  If you take the underdog, and they lose by less than the spread, you earn a point. If the team you pick “pushes” (the home team score plus the spread value, equals the visitors score), you earn a half a point for that game.

On HostedPools, our deadlines are always at 1pm (Eastern) on Sundays, but we allow you to select a team from an earlier game as long as your pick is in prior to the listed game time.

Pick 5 Football Pool Options

The Spread

Pick 5 Hockey Pools generally use The Puck Line (Spread), but if you have more casual fans/entrants, you could always make them pick 5 games straight up.  We generally advise using the straight up option for hockey pools to begin with.

Overtime/Shootout

Some pools will consider the game complete at the end of regulation, or overtime for scoring purposes.  Our preference is to use the final score, but more serious pools like to have the option.

   Set Up Your Pick 5 Hockey Pool

Survivor Hockey Pool on Hosted Pools

The Survivor Hockey Pool, sometimes called a Knockout or Elimination Hockey Pool, is very similar to it’s Football counterpart, but it tends to be a little tougher to pick, as hockey is a little more unpredictable game to game to football.  As a result it’s good to incorporate the multiple life options.  It’s a format where one person will often set up multiple entries to take a shot at the winner take all prize.

Survivor Hockey Pool Basics

For each weekend of the NHL regular season, you pick a team to win their specified game that weekend.  If they win, you proceed to the following week.  If they lose, you are eliminated from the pool.    Each entry may only select a team once for the duration of the pool.  The pool runs until you’re down to only one remaining entry, or the regular season ends.

If the pool makes it to the end of the regular season with multiple entries alive, they would split the prize money equally.  Entries may also choose to split the prize once the pool only has a few remaining.  We recommend a partial split with entries still playing to be the sole survivor.

On HostedPools, our deadlines for weekend Survivor Hockey Pools are always at Noon (Eastern) on Saturdays.

Survivor Hockey Pool Options

Multiple Lives/Strikes

You can set up your Survivor Hockey Pool to allow for multiple chances for each entry, so you’re not eliminated until you’ve accumulated the necessary strikes.  It’s a solid option unless you have a very large pool, as these tend to only last a couple months out of a 6 month season.  As a result, many pools will allow 2 or 3 strikes, and still run a first half and a second half pool (ask us about our 2nd pool in same season discount!).

Default Picks

Set up a default pick option, so when someone forgets, or is unable to make a pick, they still end up with a selection according to the default pick criteria.  HostedPools doesn’t currently have hockey pool defaults, but we are considering adding them for the 2016 season.  Pool Managers can however choose their own criteria and set picks as necessary for anyone that hadn’t chosen.

Pick Losers

You can flip your Survivor Hockey Pool on its head by making your entrants pick against teams instead of for them.  So the team picked would have to lose their game in order to proceed to the following week.

   Set Up Your Survivor Hockey Pool

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